PLAN project (Prevision-making at the Local level: Anticipating what’s Next)

How do policymakers see the future of international mobility in a post-pandemic world?

After weeks of travel bans, the reopening of international borders will be decisive. The PLAN project seizes this historical moment to advance the understanding of anticipation and decision-making under uncertainty.

An interdisciplinary and cost-effective empirical design will bring objective evidence to the study of future-oriented cognition. Our online survey will allow us to compare stakeholders’ forecasts (at T0 and T+1) with objective administrative data (at T+1 and T+2). These findings will be used to support policy-making in uncertain times.

Further, this project will propel the nascent collaboration between the University of Oxford in the UK and Sciences Po and the IC Migrations in France – a consortium uniquely positioned to further demonstrate how advances in contemporary sciences can contribute to better understand and support innovative policymaking.

Our team spans disciplines and countries.

At Oxford, the following researchers will take an active part in the PLAN project: William Allen, Fellow by Examination at Magdalen College and COMPAS researcher; Jacqueline Broadhead, director of the Global Exchange on Migration and diversity (GEM) and a fellow of Kellog’s College; Denis Kierans, MigObs and GEM researcher; Nils Reimer, postdoctoral fellow at the Department of Experimental Psychology and a fellow of Brasenose College; and Olivia Spiegler, New College stipendiary lecturer and a postdoctoral fellow at the Department of Experimental Psychology at the University of Oxford.

GEM’s expertise in knowledge exchange activities and long-standing track record of collaboration with municipalities will be key to maximise the impact of this project; while the cooperation with the Sciences Po and the IC Migrations (ICM) will provide a ready-made audience for knowledge exchange activities in France.

On the French side, the project is led by Virginie Guiraudon, CNRS Director of Research at the Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics (CEE) at Sciences Po Paris and ICM fellow (POLICY department). The team comprises: Mathieu Ichou, tenured researcher at the INED, co-head of the International Migrations and Minorities (MIM) research unit, Associate Researcher at the Observatoire Sociologique du Changement (OSC) of Sciences Po (IC Migration fellow, POLICY department); Valéry Ridde, Senior Researcher in Public Health and Global Health, at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (ICM fellow, HEALTH department); Sorana Toma, Assistant Professor of Sociology in the CREST at the ENSAE-Université Paris-Saclay (ICM fellow, INTEGER department); Ilka Vari-Lavoisier, ERC postdoctoral fellow, COMPAS research affiliate, and DIAL research associate (ICM fellow, DYNAMICS department); and Tommaso Vitale, Associate Professor of Sociology at Sciences Po (CEE) and director of the master’s programme “Governing the Large Metropolis” at the École Urbaine. Interdisciplinary, our team also includes Stefano Palminteri, head of the Human Reinforcement Learning team, at the Laboratoire de Neurosciences Cognitives et Computationelles (Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale & ENS, Paris).

Our advisory board is co-chaired by François Héran, professor at the Collège de France, former INED Director, and current lead of the Institut Convergences Migrations in Paris; and Carlos Vargas-Silva, Director of the Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS) and Associate Professor at the University of Oxford. Further, the advisory board gathers world-class experts, in the fields of migration and social cognition, including Philip Tetlock, Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, faculty at Berkeley (Mitchell Endowed Chair in the Haas School) and The Ohio State University and a former Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (Stanford) and the Russell Sage Foundation, as well as: Olivier Borraz, director of the Center for the Sociology of Organizations (CSO) at Sciences Po  and a CNRS Senior Research fellow; Dace Dzenovska, Associate Professor of Anthropology at Oxford and an ERC grantee; Camille Hamidi, Professor of Political Science at the Université Lyon II Lumière; Florence Faucher, Professor of Political Science at Sciences Po (CEE), Associate Fellow at Nuffield College and in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford, and OXPO Director; Jeanne Lazarus, Sciences Po Senior researcher (CSO); Olivier Pilmis, Sciences Po researcher in Macroeconomics (CSO); Hillel Rapoport, Professor of Economics at the Paris School of Economics, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, a member of Bar-Ilan University’s and chair of the DYNAMICS department of the ICM; Sarah Spencer, Director of Strategy and a Senior Fellow at COMPAS, former GEM Director, Chair of the Board of Directors of IMISCOE, and a member of Kellogg College at Oxford; Nicholas Van Hear, senior researcher at COMPAS and a member of St Cross College at Oxford; as well as Alain Berthoz, Emeritus Professor at the Collège de France, former Director of the Perception and Action Lab (CNRS/Collège de France), and an expert in Cognitive Neuroscience.